Racing! Class is in session for the Rob Henie handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready to head to Gulfstream Park.

Saturday is a pretty big day in racing, starting with the group of races collectively known as the Dubai World Cup, which finishes with the $10 million Dubai World Cup. There is also a good 3-year-old Kentucky Derby prep race called the UAE Derby, which I like to call the Dubai Derby so it doesn’t get confused with a Detroit-area labor group.

The horse to watch in that is Mendelssohn, a pretty good colt that his connections are eager to bring over to the Kentucky Derby. If he finishes first or second, you can count on them to start making the arrangements. He came over here to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. So, he should probably have enough frequent flier miles to be eligible for an upgrade and, if lucky, free wi-fi.

The other race to watch is the Florida Derby at Gulfstream. There are some very good horses in it including Audible, who is the 9-5 favorite. In fact, the entire card at Gulfstream is top shelf with seven races worth more than $100,000. Your newsletter will be there to report for all platforms of The Times, so if you can’t wait until Sunday morning, check online for the latest from both Dubai and South Florida.

Now, to whet your appetite, here’s a more comprehensive look at both the Dubai World Cup and the Florida Derby. (just click here)

Couple more things before we move along. As promised, the Longines clock at the finish line at Santa Anita now tells the accurate time. Power of the newsletter. And, there is no racing at Los Alamitos in observance of Easter.

A handicapping tip

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from Saturday’s third race at Santa Anita.

“This is a weak maiden $20,000 claiming race at a mile, and a bad, bad group, how poor? Our WCHR Maiden Claim Appraisals have this group as a $700 bunch, that’s it. Remember, these are real money appraisals, not according to the ‘fluffy’ inflated race-track prices, but rather, ‘for sale’ type prices. With training fees around $2,500 a month, ask yourself, how many of these runners would you pay more than $700 for, knowing you’ll be paying $2,500 a month in fees? This is where it gets real, and this is why our claim appraisals are accurate, not based on fake money such as this $20,000 claiming price. Nobody in their right mind would give $20,000 for any of these, not even close. Top selection here is VEGAS ITCH (#2). We always remind our members to give extra credence to the runner who shows success when trying something new, which, in the case of this one, he responded not only when dropped to this low level last time out, but also when routing on the main track for the first time. Unlike a horse such as SPEND IT, who’s had multiple chances at this same level and also routing, we can point to the factors we just mentioned with the top choice, and certainly give another opportunity to break through, with Brayan Pena familiar with him, and a pair of works in place as well. DEFENSE MINISTER (#7) strings three races together to begin his career, telling us he’s withstanding the rigors of racing well, now back for his second try routing, with Evin Roman stringing along for Jerry Hollendorfer, and he too has every right to move forward, not a perennial loser, at least not yet.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Maiden Listed Condition: $20,000

“WCHR Estimated Level: $700

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 2-7-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,8

“Positive Notes:

“3 Lighthouse Point - Strings races together for the first time in his career, telling us he could be getting healthy, which at least opens the door to a good effort.

“Negative Notes:

“5 Williston Dude - We absolutely question this one’s heart, sometimes pinning his ears back, not wanting to be asked for more, never a good trait to back in a runner.

“TOP PICK: VEGAS ITCH (#2 9-5 Pena)

“SECOND CHOICE: DEFENSE MINISTER (#7 4-1 Roman)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Ten Blessings won Friday’s $58,000 7-furlong allowance feature by 1 ¾ lengths. Ten Blessings, trained by Bob Baffert, ran a comfortable second until he went to the lead with about a furlong to go. He went off as the heavy favorite and paid $3.00, $2.40 and $2.10.

He ran second in his previous start after running third in the Malibu Stakes on Santa Anita’s opening day on Dec. 26.

“He ran too good to lose last time,” jockey Drayden Van Dyke told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “He’s been doing well since that race and today he was just too much horse. He’s a very classy horse and he’s getting better, I think.”

Conquest Cobra finished second and Hoffenheim was third.

Santa Anita preview

The Stronach Group shipped all the money and stakes races to Gulfstream this weekend leaving a pretty meager Saturday card at Santa Anita, starting at noon. But it’s actually a pretty good betting card. Lots of full fields, with the exception of the feature. Four of the 10 races are on the turf including three down the hill.

Take a look at these field sizes, in order: 7, 8, 8, 5, 11, 8, 10, 9, 10, 12.

The feature, going as the fourth race at a little after 1:30 p.m., is the $75,000 Santana Mile, which pretty much explains everything you need to know about the race conditions. There are only five horses, but morning-linemaker Jon White is projecting you’ll find a case for four of them.

Dr. Dorr is the 9-5 favorite for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Natalie Baffert. He won his last race, a 6 ½ furlong allowance at 12-1. Air Vice Marshall, for Doug O’Neill, is the 2-1 second favorite after a second in his last allowance race. Cat Burglar is 5-2 and The Lieutenant is 4-1. Well, we named four of them, so might as well name the other. Clear The Mine is 10-1.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:00 Gulfstream: $125,000 Cutler Bay Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 mile on the turf. Favorite: Speed Franco (6-5)

10:30 Gulfstream: $125,000 Sanibel Island Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 mile on the turf. Favorite: Best Performance (8-5)

12:00 Gulfstream: Grade 2 $300,000 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Always Dreaming (9-5)

1:49 Gulfstream: Grade 2 $250,000 Honey Fox Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on the turf. Favorite: Lull (5-2)

2:26 Gulfstream: Gulfstream Park Oaks, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Take Charge Paula (4-1)

3:00 Gulfstream: Grade 2 $250,000 Pan American Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/12 miles on turf. Favorite: Sadler’s Joy (2-1)

3:09 Oaklawn: $100,000 Rainbow Miss Stakes, 3 year olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Georgia’s Rewards (7-2)

3:36 Gulfstream: Grade 1 $1 million Florida Derby,3 year olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Audible (9-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 11 Tiz Toffee (7-2)

Newcomer from the Phil D'Amato stable ran well when finishing second in both out-of-state starts and should be tough to deny in her SoCal debut if she takes to the turf. Drawn well outside with tactical speed, this sophomore filly should have every chance turning for home.

Friday Result: Only one-third of my exacta/trifecta box got home when favorite Out of The Flames won but Pursuing The Dream finished fourth and Proud Heroine ran out.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 5 Favorite Cartel Jr (3-1)

He will be dangerous on the comeback trial if he runs to his smooth 12.1 gate drill on Feb. 24 when breaking sharp in a solo work. He also broke fast in a 350-yard, 18.4 gate move March 6 and has fired fresh before.

Final thought

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at [email protected] or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

SEKHMET'S REVENGE angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and rallied under urging to wear down the runner-up late. BRANDON'S LAW three deep early, stalked off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn, took the lead into the stretch and held on well but was caught late. TELL ME MORE broke slowly and steadied when bumped, settled inside, went outside a rival leaving the backstretch and three deep into the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and split horses in deep stretch to gain the show. TURING MACHINE between horses early, chased outside a rival, came out some in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MAJESTIC DESIGN pulled outside a rival then angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, drifted in some in deep stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. SEE THE WORLD sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the second turn and into the stretch, fought back in midstretch and weakened late. BEE SWEET chased inside then off the rail leaving the backstretch, continued outside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked the necessary response. UNLUCKY HILLARY broke in and bumped a rival, saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back into and on the second turn, was in tight along the rail in deep stretch and lacked a rally. DOUBELIEVENMAGIC angled in and chased outside a rival then off the rail into the stretch and did not rally.

TOWARDS THE LIGHT stalked the pace outside a rival then off the rail leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch, rallied under left handed urging while drifting in to collar the runner-up a sixteenth out and won clear. PURE PURSUIT had speed between horses early, angled in and inched away to set the pace inside, could not match the winner in the final sixteenth and just held second. DOWNSIDE UP between foes early, chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail on the turn, continued alongside a foe into the stretch and finished with interest to be edged for the place. BEAR DOWN CATS bobbled in a bit of a slow start, chased inside, came off the rail on the turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick between foes nearing the wire. CONTENTO broke slowly, settled off the rail then a bit off the fence, came out into the stretch and improved position. LATITUDE chased outside then alongside a rival to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. KING DARIUS had sped outside then alongside the runner-up, stalked off the rail leaving the backstretch and on the turn and into the stretch, drifted in and weakened in the final furlong. TIZ THE TICKET chased outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and did not rally. ANZIYAN CAT saved ground stalking the pace, pulled along the inside into and on the turn, continued along the rail and weakened in the drive.

JOEJOE'S KINGDOM settled inside, came out on the turn, swung four wide into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up nearing the wire. CANDY CREW had speed between horses to duel for the lead, inched away and angled in on the turn, kicked clear and held on well but was caught late. ROYAL TRUMP stalked off the rail then outside a rival, came four wide into the stretch, drifted in some and finished with interest. SIR VALENTINE had speed off the rail then angled in and dueled inside, stalked on the turn, came out into the stretch and was outfinished. OH MAN broke out a bit, saved ground stalking the pace, came out some into the stretch and weakened. CURLY'S MARK squeezed a bit at the start, chased outside a rival then off the rail, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. OPTIC prompted the pace three deep then stalked outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

FIBONACCI chased between horses then inside, bid along the rail leaving the second turn to gain the lead, kicked clear under a brisk hand ride then steady handling and a long hold late. EAST RAND a step slow into stride, chased inside then off the rail, went three deep on the second turn and into the stretch, angled in and split horses in midstretch and edged a rival for the place. TRUE LOYALTY chased between horses then inside leaving the second turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and was edged for second. KYLEMORE angled in and dueled inside, inched away and came off the rail on the second turn, battled outside the winner leaving that turn, was three deep in midstretch and weakened. MAGIC MUSKETIER four wide early, chased outside then three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. BUCKSTOPPER KIT stalked three deep then outside a rival, bid three wide into the second turn, continued three wide into the stretch and weakened. SAMDAR dueled outside a rival, dropped back between horses on the second turn and also weakened. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

COW DOG had speed off the rail then outside a rival into the turn, inched away again off the inside, kicked clear, had the rider lose the whip nearing the eighth pole and won clear under a strong hand ride. MI PAJARITO stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out on the turn and three wide into the stretch and was clearly second best. TAKES TWO TO TENGA in a good position stalking the pace inside, came out into the stretch, angled to the inside in midstretch and picked up the show. BABY BEAUTY stalked outside a rival then bid inside the winner into the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. MARIANA'S GIRL bobbled at the start, chased outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. SMART LITTLE DEVIL broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail, went three wide leaving the turn and into the stretch and did not rally. LETSGOTOMARFATEXAS also broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch, drifted in a bit in midstretch and weakened. MERGIE TROID chased outside a rival then between foes into the turn, continued outside a rival on the turn and gave way. SWALLOWS INN GAL stumbled at the start to be away behind the field, angled in and saved ground off the pace, was in tight along the rail in midstretch and did not rally.

OUT OF THE FLAMES (GB) broke in a bit, chased outside then three deep down the hill, came four wide into the stretch, took a short lead three wide in midstretch and held on gamely under urging. TRAVIEZA stalked a bit off the rail then between horses leaving the hill, split rivals with a bid past midstretch and continued willingly. FACTOROFWON pulled early, chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and again in midstretch and finished well. PURSUING THE DREAM (IRE) had speed between horses then dueled inside, fought back along the rail through the stretch and continued gamely to the end. MRASEEL (IRE) saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and again in midstretch and rallied between horses late. CLASSY ATLANTIC sped to the early lead off the rail, dueled outside a rival, fought back between horses in midstretch and was outfinished. MISS PUDDLES (IRE) saved ground stalking the pace throughout and weakened late. ALLIANNA settled outside then off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and had mild late bid. PROUD HEROINE stalked between horses down the hill, came three wide into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. ATREVIDA was in a good position stalking the pace three deep then four wide leaving the hill, came five wide into the stretch and also weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

ALLIE'S LOVE dueled between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn, inched away in the stretch and won clear under some urging. BABY BROWN had speed three deep between foes then dueled three wide, battled outside the winner on the turn and bested the others. BRAGGING RIGHTS saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and gained the show. GAMEZAPPER pressed then stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch, drifted out through the drive and weakened. IRISH CREAM N KAFE stalked three deep then outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. MONGOLIAN RAHY bobbled at the break, stalked between horses then off the inside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened. TRICKY GAL bobbled and broke slowly as the ground broke out behind, angled in and saved ground to no avail. LIL' A. J. had speed four wide then stalked outside a rival, came out into the stretch and weakened. MISS BARTON dropped back outside then off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and was not a threat.

TEN BLESSINGS pressed the pace four wide then stalked outside on the turn, re-bid four wide into the stretch, inched away under left handed urging in midstretch, drifted out some and held under some late right handed pressure. CONQUEST COBRA had speed five wide then stalked outside or off the rail, angled in for the turn, split horses into the stretch, bid inside in the drive and edged a rival for the place. HOFFENHEIM dueled between horses, took a short lead leaving the turn, fought back off the rail into the stretch, was between rivals in midstretch and was edged for second. DESERT LAW stalked outside then off the rail, came out five wide into the stretch and bested the others. EXCITATIONS dueled three deep between horses then three wide on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SO CONFLATED saved ground stalking the pace, swung out into the stretch and lacked a rally. I WILL SCORE broke a bit slowly, went up between horses then dueled inside, fought back on the turn, dropped back into the stretch and gave way.

SAVE GROUND chased outside a rival then inside on the second turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch, bid three wide in deep stretch and edged the runner-up under urging. MINISTER'S GLORY saved ground stalking the pace, bid between horses a sixteenth out and continued willingly inside the winner. COOL YOUR JETS chased outside a rival, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and gained the show. HUDDLE had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away a bit off the rail in the stretch, ducked in from the whip in midstretch and was edged for third. JERSEY'S HEAT chased a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and five wide into the stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award. ASHLEY'S BIG GUY saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch, steadied when crowded in midstretch then angled in and lacked a rally. MAVERICKS broke out a bit, angled in and dueled outside a rival, drifted out into the stretch, drifted in from the whip nearing midstretch and weakened. HAILEY'S KID COMET settled off the pace inside, saved ground throughout and lacked a rally. SMART KNOWS SMART stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and weakened, then did not return to be unsaddled and was vanned off. I'M AMORE settled inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn and failed to menace.