Disaster master’s blast from the past

It could be the day after tomorrow, Independence Day or 10,000 BC, but one thing is certain: Filmmaker Roland Emmerich has the calendar marked for mayhem.

Although critics dismiss the director as a master of vapid disaster, he delivers where it counts for Hollywood studios -- at the box office. Emmerich’s last four movies, “Independence Day,” “Godzilla,” “The Patriot” and “The Day After Tomorrow,” racked up almost $2 billion combined in worldwide ticket sales.

His prehistoric adventure “10,000 B.C.,” opening today at 3,400 theaters in the U.S. and Canada, will top this weekend’s box-office charts, but the question is: How epic will it be?

Bullish box-office analysts say consumer tracking surveys point as high as $50 million. According to one research service, 84% of moviegoers are aware of the picture, and it is ranked as first choice by a potent 30% of males under 25.

Warner Bros., which released the Spartan battle epic “300” to a March record of $70.9 million on the same weekend a year ago, is tempering expectations by forecasting a solid but unspectacular opening -- a weekend gross of $28 million to $32 million.

The studio and its partner Legendary Pictures produced the PG-13 movie for nearly $100 million.

Projector, relying on the instincts of his inner caveman as much as market research, predicts spectacle-starved moviegoers will turn out to the tune of $41 million.

With a cast headed by unknowns Steven Strait and Camilla Belle, it’s no wonder Emmerich is the de facto star. The movie is being heavily marketed as “From the director of ‘Independence Day’ and ‘The Day After Tomorrow.’ ”

The ad campaign also emphasizes the impressive visuals that have become the director’s hallmark, such as Strait’s crouching hunter squaring off in silhouette against a towering saber-tooth tiger.

Warner Bros. chose the opening date partly to take advantage of the staggered spring breaks at schools across the country over the next few weeks, which create a mini-summer season for the industry. Holidays helped “300” amass $456 million worldwide last year.

“The first part of March has been a good place for us,” said Dan Fellman, the studio’s president of domestic distribution. “It’s a window of opportunity.”

Most rival studios steered clear of “10,000 B.C.,” but two other major movies also open wide today.

Walt Disney Pictures offers a counter-programming alternative in the G-rated comedy “College Road Trip,” opening at 2,700 theaters, while Lions Gate Films’ R-rated heist thriller “The Bank Job” launches at 1,600 locations.

Disney has been focusing mainly on PG and PG-13 popcorn adventures like the “Pirates of the Caribbean” and “National Treasure” franchises in recent years, but “College Road Trip” is a throwback to its days of churning out wholesome family fare.

Produced for about $30 million, the movie stars Martin Lawrence as an overprotective dad taking his daughter, played by Raven-Symone of “The Cosby Show” and Disney Channel’s “That’s So Raven,” to tour campuses as she prepares to leave the nest.

Chuck Viane, the film studio’s president of distribution, expects an opening similar to its remake of the family comedy “The Shaggy Dog,” which scrounged up $16.3 million in March 2006. Parents with kids will be the core audience, but Viane is never one to think small.

“This movie is going to be a lot of fun whether you’re 6 or 86,” he said, ruling out few potential patrons other than Mike Wallace and Mickey Rooney.

With little direct competition in the market, “College Road Trip” could pleasantly surprise with about $18 million.

“The Bank Job” is a well-reviewed British import starring Jason Statham and the spicily named Saffron Burrows.

Based on a true story, the thriller is being sold with retro-style marketing materials that evoke its swinging 1970s setting. It figures to lure movie geeks who fondly remember that era -- meaning older males like Projector.

Look for a box-office deposit in the mid-single digits.

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Weekend Forecast

Warner Bros.’ “10,000 B.C.” is expected to lead the industry this weekend at the box office. These figures are Times predictions only. Studios will issue weekend estimates Sunday and final results Monday for U.S. and Canadian ticket sales.

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*--* -- Movie 3-day Through the Weeks prediction --- (studio) (millions) weekend -- 1 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) $41.0 $41.0 1 2 College Road Trip (Disney) 18.0 18.0 1 3 Semi-Pro (New Line) 8.0 27.5 2 4 Vantage Point (Sony) 7.0 51.0 3 5 The Bank Job (Lions Gate) 6.0 6.0 1 6 The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) 5.5 16.0 2 -- The Spiderwick Chronicles -- -- -- 7 (Paramount) 5.0 62.0 4 8 Jumper (20th Century Fox) 4.0 73.0 4 9 No Country for Old Men 3.5 74.5 18 (Miramax) 10 Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) 3.0 53.0 4 *--*

Los Angeles Times

Source: Times research