Tune in on Sunday, and be ready to adjust focus
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With one weekend remaining in the NFL regular season, more than half the teams still have a postseason pulse.
The wild-card picture won’t come into crisp focus until Sunday afternoon, but here’s a look at how things are shaping up and which direction the teams have been heading -- up ( ), down ( ) or holding steady ( ).
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First-round byes
Chicago -- Even though their record is tied for best in the league, the Bears are primed to get picked off in the playoffs. In the last two weeks, they’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 6-24 by a total of eight points. Had Mike Williams not dropped a pass in the end zone last Sunday as time expired, the Detroit Lions would have beaten them. That’s got to worry Coach Lovie Smith.
New Orleans -- The Saints have gone from a heartwarming story to a strong Super Bowl contender, clinching their first playoff bye in franchise history. The way they dominated in last Sunday’s victory over the New York Giants proved the Saints can win a big game on the road. But they won’t have to leave home if they win their playoff opener and Chicago stumbles. And that Superdome can get awfully loud.
San Diego -- With all their come-from-behind victories this season, the Chargers are confident that they’re never out of a game. Even when Philip Rivers is off, as he has been the last two weeks, he’s still got enough firepower around him to pull his team through, and sometimes make it look easy in the process. The question is, can Marty Schottenheimer finally coach a team to the Super Bowl?
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Guaranteed berths
Baltimore -- This is the team that should really scare the Chargers. Not only did the Ravens beat San Diego earlier this season, but they look just as good -- if not better -- on the road than they do at home. They’re 6-2 on enemy turf. That’s not bad, considering they were 0-8 away from home last season.
Seattle -- Clearly the Seahawks aren’t the team they were last season, and they’re coming off a wrenching, last-second loss to the Chargers. But Seattle played well in defeat -- at least until the final minute -- and Shaun Alexander showed he still has life in his legs. How much heart the Seahawks show Sunday in an otherwise meaningless finale at Tampa Bay could be an indicator of whether they’re ready for the postseason.
Dallas -- After the Christmas Day loss to Philadelphia, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said he was “as disgusted as I’ve been in years.” That’s understandable. It was the second time this month his team was blown out at home in a nationally televised game. Terrell Owens was no help; he had two catches for 23 yards, and dropped two more, pushing his league-high total to 14 drops.
Philadelphia -- All of a sudden, the Eagles can run the ball and shut down the run, and they’re in position to win the NFC East and host a playoff game. Not bad for a franchise that everyone thought was cooked when Donovan McNabb went down with a knee injury. Their biggest problem now could be next season’s decision: McNabb or Jeff Garcia? That’s for another day, because right now they’re on a roll.
New England -- When it comes to the postseason, experience counts, and the Patriots have plenty of that. The defense has gotten a boost with the return of Rodney Harrison, and the offense can always lean on the consistency of Tom Brady. He spread the ball to 11 different receivers against Jacksonville last weekend, and he can also run when he needs to.
Indianapolis -- The Colts have lost three of four games this month in a swoon that’s dramatic but not entirely unexpected. They simply can’t stop the run. In their loss to Houston last Sunday, they surrendered 191 yards rushing and two touchdowns to a team averaging 100 yards on the ground. Unless they find some answers quickly, the Colts will be watching most of the postseason from the couch.
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Control their destiny
New York Jets -- The Jets probably wouldn’t mind burning the first three quarters of footage from their Christmas Day game at Miami, but for them that last quarter was an instant classic. The smallest player on the team, 5-foot-8 rookie Leon Washington, made the biggest play of the season, turning a screen pass into a 64-yard gain that set up the winning field goal. If they beat the lowly Raiders on Sunday, their improbable march to the postseason is complete.
Denver -- Edging Cincinnati last weekend was huge, but the Broncos still have lots of unanswered questions. The biggest is whether rookie quarterback Jay Cutler, who averaged fewer than three victories a season in college, can not only get his team to the playoffs but lead it deep into them. At least he has this going for him: teammates say he’s the calmest guy out there.
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In need of help
Cincinnati -- Although Carson Palmer continues to deny rumors of a serious injury to his throwing shoulder, he’s not nearly as sharp as he typically is. And he’s getting very little help from his supporting cast. The talented but mistake-prone Bengals are quickly and quietly sliding into the abyss.
New York Giants -- If the Giants beat Washington on Saturday, they’ll most likely make the postseason. But for what? They’re an old, injury-plagued team with no real leadership and no future. Michael Strahan’s placement on injured reserve doesn’t help.
It’s time for Tom Coughlin to pack his bags and follow Tiki Barber out the door, and for the franchise to hire a coach who can instill some discipline and figure out whether Eli Manning is a reliable answer at quarterback.
Carolina -- The Panthers hadn’t been able to win with Chris Weinke at quarterback, so they stuck DeAngelo Williams there. The rookie running back took nine direct snaps from center, and ran for first downs on seven. It’s just the kind of creative thinking the Panthers needed to beat Atlanta and get out of their rut. But it’s probably not a long-term answer for a team clinging to tenuous postseason hopes.
Green Bay -- Somehow, the Packers are still a part of the playoff picture, although they’ll need to win at Chicago and get plenty of help to reach the postseason. In the last six games, they’ve lost three then won three. Throughout, they’ve had trouble scoring in the red zone. They have to take better advantage of those opportunities.
Tennessee -- The Titans have won six straight, the league’s second-longest winning streak, and could become the first team to make the playoffs after losing its first five games. It’s a longshot: they need to beat New England and get a loss or tie by Cincinnati, a loss by Denver and a Kansas City victory. In the end, even if they’re left out, they have some momentum heading into next season.
Kansas City -- The Chiefs are coming off a victory, but that yawner came against the Raiders and was on the heels of three losses. Trent Green does not look playoff ready, nor do the Chiefs’ defense or special-teams units. Considering what has to happen for Kansas City to reach the postseason, though, it doesn’t really matter.
St. Louis -- To reach the postseason, the Rams need to beat Minnesota on Sunday -- and basically everyone else in the NFC has to lose. Regardless, their consecutive victories give them something to build on next season. Steven Jackson has looked great, and first-year Coach Scott Linehan is staying calm, cool and employed after his team’s five-game death spiral.
Jacksonville -- The Jaguars followed impressive victories over Miami and Indianapolis with close losses to Tennessee and New England. As a result, Jacksonville probably will miss the playoffs. That’s a shame, because it would be fun to see what Maurice Jones-Drew could do in the national spotlight.
Atlanta -- The Falcons were embarrassed by a weak Carolina team last Sunday, stumbling to their fourth consecutive home defeat and providing further ammunition for owner Arthur Blank to make a coaching change. They could muster just three points against an opponent they beat 20-6 in the opener. Ouch.
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