The Times Film Report

This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. and Canadian returns (about 55% of gross) represent only 20% of a film’s final revenue, which includes overseas theatrical, video and TV income. The industry marketing average of $30 million per film is factored into these profit equations, as is the relative strength of specific film genres in foreign markets. Results for the weekend of Dec. 7-9:

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Highlights:

* “Ocean’s Eleven” should be a major worldwide hit, though financiers Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow will cede a large portion of their profits to talent.

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Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Harry Potter Warner Bros. 2 $130 Monsters, Inc. Disney/Pixar 4 115 Ocean’s Eleven Warner Bros./Village Roadshow 1 85

Projected U.S. box-office* receipts,* Movie title in millions Harry Potter $350 Monsters, Inc. 240 Ocean’s Eleven 175

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Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Shallow Hal Fox 7 $48 $70 Behind Enemy Lines Fox 3 40 55 Amelie Miramax 9 10 22

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Tossups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Domestic Disturbance Paramount 10 $53 $45 Life as a House New Line 11 17 16 Out Cold Disney 8 11 15 The Wash Lions Gate 12 4 10

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Losers (less than $5 million)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Spy Game Universal/Beacon 5 $92 $65 Black Knight Fox 6 50 33

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Notes: Cost estimates are for production only. Only half of box-office receipts come back to the studio.

If you have information or comments about the chart, call (213) 237-2001 or send e-mail to [email protected]. Send faxes to (213) 237-7837.

RICHARD NATALE