Airport Study Raises Debate Over Plans for LAX, El Toro

The number of passengers using Southern California airports is expected to double by 2020, but if more airports are not built or existing facilities expanded, how will the estimated 158 million customers that year be served?

The question is at the heart of a pending study by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, and the agency’s answers could prove useful for those who oppose the massive Los Angeles International Airport expansion and construction of an airport at the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station in Orange County.

Opponents of the two projects hope the association’s study will show that other airports can assume much of the projected demand in 21 years.

“Rather than having a forecast debate, we should be looking at how we move these passengers and take full advantage of the [other] airports we have today,” said Lake Forest Councilman Richard T. Dixon, an opponent of both an El Toro airport and LAX expansion.

But Los Alamitos Councilman Ron Bates, who supports both projects, said new airport usage numbers being analyzed by the association may provide even more arguments for the construction projects.

“I think we’ll find that the economic impact on the region [without El Toro and LAX] would be less than desirable,” he said.

Dixon and Bates are members of the association, which provides forecasts that help local governments formulate plans.

The agency, governed by 75 elected officials from Southern California cities and counties, will release an update on its airport projections when its aviation task force meets Thursday in Los Angeles. The task force will recommend whether the new information should be adopted as part of the regional transportation plan.

The association’s current projection of passenger demand is based on more than a dozen factors, including variables such as air fares, frequency of flights and travel time to airports.

The brunt of the future load would be borne by LAX, the planned El Toro airfield and Ontario International Airport, the agency says. The association predicts that 22 million passengers would be using El Toro in 2020--triple the current load of John Wayne Airport. LAX would grow from about 60 million passengers a year today to 94 million, and Ontario would serve 16 million.

That’s assuming, of course, that Southern California’s 12 airports will be expanded and El Toro will be built to accommodate the burgeoning passenger load.

The association has not worried before whether facilities would be built to handle all of its transportation predictions. But now, with communities opposed to bigger airports, the agency is acknowledging that airports might not grow with demand.

That means, Dixon said, that future demand must be “based in reality and not some wish list.”

The association has developed five scenarios to use as it determines how many passengers can be served in 2020. Under all five scenarios, LAX would be capped at no more than 70 million passengers a year. Two alternatives look at what would happen if the El Toro airport is not built. One would cap John Wayne Airport at 15 million passengers, more than twice what it now serves, and the rest would allow an unlimited number of passengers there.

Under three alternatives, a high-speed rail line--at an estimated cost of $6 billion--would take passengers from Irvine to Ontario International or March Air Force Base near Riverside.

The flaw in previous planning by the association was not in calculating how many people would want to fly, but in determining which airports they should use, Dixon said.

The association’s planners ran a “what if” scenario on their computers 18 months ago to see what would happen to demand if El Toro was not built or LAX was not expanded. They found that half of the new demand would simply disappear, said Tim Merwin, who was the association’s aviation program manager for 20 years.

About a quarter of the demand would be redistributed to other airports and modes of travel, and another quarter would be served by airports in other regions.

Less service, though, would mean a loss of economic activity, Merwin said. The association estimates that airport-related businesses generate as much as $800 million in revenue a year for every 1 million passengers. For El Toro’s 22 million passengers predicted for 2020, that’s $17.6 billion.

Using the argument of economic stagnation, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan unveiled an ambitious plan last year to expand LAX, saying that the region’s economic future demands more capacity, particularly for international flights and cargo.

But Riordan’s proposal for building a fifth runway at the airport was vehemently opposed by residents, causing him to scale back the project in June. The current plan, for 92 million passengers a year in 2020, carries a price tag of $10 billion and would require the relocation of nearly 250 businesses.

Expansion foes, led by Los Angeles Councilwoman Ruth Galanter, contend that LAX already shoulders too much of the burden for regional air travel.

She and Lake Forest’s Dixon have both pointed to high-speed rail as a way of moving passenger demand to outlying airports that want the new business. The association has already chosen a rail route linking LAX, Union Station and Ontario. Any rail alternatives, however, could face even tougher political challenges than building an airport.

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Rising Demand on Airports

With air travel expected to increase in the next two decades, the Southern California Assn. of Governments is trying to figure out how many passengers can be served if an El Toro airport is not built and Los Angeles International Airport is not expanded. A look at demand last year and estimates for 2020, in millions of passengers:

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Airport 1998 2020 Los Angeles Intl. 61.2 94.2 El Toro (proposed) * 22.2 Ontario Intl. 6.4 15.9 Burbank 4.7 9.2 John Wayne 7.5 7.0 Long Beach 0.6 2.8 Norton AFB * 1.8 Point Mugu * 1.8 Palm Springs 1.3 1.7 March AFB 0.0 0.9 Oxnard 0.1 0.2 Palmdale * 0.1 George AFB * 0.1 Total 81.8 157.9

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* Military or closed military airfields earmarked for civilian use.

Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments

Los Angeles Times