On Election Eve, Who Will Head Indonesia Is in Doubt

JAKARTA, Indonesia — After months of social, economic and political upheaval, Indonesia is taking a giant step this week on its perilous path to democracy--the election of a president to govern the world’s fourth most populous nation for the next five years.

Who will win Indonesia’s first contested presidential election since 1955, which will be held Wednesday, remains in doubt, and political maneuvering continues.

Incumbent B. J. Habibie and other hopefuls, led by the apparent front-runner, Megawati Sukarnoputri, are trying to cobble together coalitions capable of controlling 351 of the 700 seats in the People’s Consultative Assembly, which will choose the president.

The assembly also is to decide the future of East Timor. It is considered certain to endorse revocation of the law that formalized Indonesia’s 1976 annexation of the territory, which was racked by violence after voting for independence in August.

For Indonesia and the region as a whole, the stakes are high: This patchwork of about 13,000 islands and more than 200 million people straddles international shipping lanes, represents a huge market for U.S. goods and is seen as a balance to China’s growing regional power. Indonesia was--until its fall from grace--Southeast Asia’s top economic power and most influential playmaker, a bulwark of stability and development in a sea of shifting currents.

But since student protesters forced President Suharto to resign after 32 years in power 17 months ago, the country has been whiplashed by riots, economic turmoil and the violence in East Timor. There are widespread warnings of more violent protests if Indonesians feel cheated by the assembly.

Habibie, Suharto’s successor, is fighting an uphill battle to stay in office.

“I have to continue the struggle until the last minute,” Habibie told soldiers at the presidential palace Monday in what had the echoes of a farewell speech. “I don’t want to say goodbye.”

Of the 700 assembly members, 462 were elected in a free and fair popular election in June, and 38 others are nonelected members of the powerful military.

The other 200 members of the assembly, which is now in session planning Indonesia’s transition to democracy, were appointed and represent various segments of society.

Military a Crucial Source of Support

Military support is so crucial to any civilian president that Habibie offered the vice presidency to the armed forces chief, Gen. Wiranto. In a blow to Habibie’s chances, Wiranto turned it down. In a rare TV address, the general said he would devote his time to trying to restore peace in Indonesia.

A commission comprising all 11 factions in the assembly agreed to send a draft decree revoking Indonesia’s annexation of East Timor to a plenary session for a vote that could come as early as today. That would allow the U.N.-sanctioned peace force, led by Australia, to take over security for the territory for a predetermined period.

“They said they would try to accelerate the process, and we certainly hope it will go ahead with no hitches,” Fred Eckhard, spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, said in New York.

Jeffrey Winters, an Indonesia expert at Northwestern University, said: “There is a huge gap between what the people across society want and what most of the assembly members are doing and thinking.

“Indonesians want change. But the assembly is dominated by a coalition of forces more interested in holding on to power and the status quo. If the people inside the parliament building ignore the demands for change in the streets outside, Indonesia could become very explosive.”

In the June election, Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party in Struggle won 34% of the popular vote, compared with 22% for Habibie’s ruling Golkar party.

If Megawati, daughter of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, fails to win the assembly vote, she will have only herself to blame, political analysts say.

Megawati, 52, is untainted by corruption and appeals to the disenfranchised. However, she has done little campaigning or coalition-building, and seldom made public her views on any issue. She rarely gives speeches or grants interviews, and is almost never quoted in the media.

On top of that, she snubbed her most influential supporter, Abdurrahman Wahid, known as Gus Dur, who heads the Nahdlatul Ulama, a Muslim organization with 30 million members.

Wahid, a blind and frail 59-year-old cleric of saint-like popularity who is viewed by all sides as a voice of reason, responded by declaring his own candidacy. He now says of Megawati: “As a person, I like her, but as a politician, she’s zero.”

Besides Habibie, Megawati and Wahid, several other candidates could emerge if the assembly becomes deadlocked.

Habibie, a 62-year-old German-educated engineer, has had little success capitalizing on Megawati’s inaction. He remains on such shaky ground that some members of his Golkar party are trying to dump him and put up a new candidate at the eleventh hour.

Twice in the last week, he went before the assembly to defend his record and beg for support.

“To those factions who think I have achieved nothing, . . . I shall put this to Allah . . . because only he knows what we have done,” Habibie said.

Reforms Made--but Suharto Links Remain

Indeed, Habibie did usher in an era of reform unimaginable under Suharto and oversaw an improvement in the economy.

But he remains haunted by close links to Suharto, an unwillingness to investigate Suharto’s accumulated wealth, a $70-million banking scandal involving his associates, and his hastily devised plan to offer East Timor independence.

“Personally, I feel Habibie is still the best candidate for the job,” said Eki Syachrudin, Golkar’s vice secretary-general. “He has planted the seeds of democracy, and he is the only one experienced enough to deal with the international community, which has the aid and investment we need so desperately.

“But I think he’s going to find it difficult to get elected,” the party official said. “Maybe 30 or 40 members of Golkar will end up voting for Megawati or Gus Dur. I’m just not sure [Habibie is] capable of shedding the burdens of the past.”

The run-up to the election has taken place against a daily backdrop of demonstrations, mostly in support of Megawati, in which 200 people were injured and 75 arrested last week. With more than 40,000 security troops on duty in Jakarta, the capital, the protests subsided somewhat Monday.

About 5,000 students demanding the election of Megawati filled a major traffic circle. “We will be here until Mega becomes president,” said student Zaenal Surrahman. “If she isn’t elected, we will start a revolution.”

About 1,000 stockbrokers and young business professionals protested in the stock exchange, urging Habibie to quit.

Armed forces spokesman Maj. Gen. Sudraja said Wednesday’s election would be peaceful.

However tumultuous the preelection weeks have been, it is clear that Indonesia’s experiment with democracy has not been a failure. The media are free and critical, people express opinions openly with no fear of retribution, debate in the assembly has been spirited. Street protests, though often unruly, have not been marked by vandalism, burning and looting as they were when Suharto was forced from power.

“Yes, we’re on the road to democracy,” said insurance broker Ktut Swastika, who joined the anti-Habibie demonstration at the stock exchange. “Maybe a lot of people don’t really understand how all this is meant to work, but they’re feeling empowered and emboldened, and I guess that in itself is a definition of democracy.”