Growth Expected in Manufacturing and Jobs

The U.S. economy is likely to show steady improvement in manufacturing and a rebound in job growth in reports to be issued this week, analysts said.

The key numbers are the October jobs report and the National Assn. of Purchasing Management manufacturing index. If they meet expectations, the numbers will prompt “a fairly spirited debate among Federal Reserve policymakers” when they meet Nov. 16 to discuss whether to raise interest rates to cool the economy and quell inflation, said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. in New York.

The purchasing managers index comes out today and the jobs report Friday.

Insight into policymakers’ thinking will come with Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s regional economic outlook, known as the “beige book.” It probably will show that inflation is still tame and labor markets still tight, analysts said.

“But there might be emerging signs of a slowdown,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at First Tennessee Capital Markets in New York. “Housing has already cooled off, and some retail statistics look slower too.”

Other reports this week:

* Monday, the Commerce Department is expected to report that construction spending slipped 0.1% in September, the sixth straight monthly drop in construction spending.

* Tuesday, the Commerce Department will release figures on personal income and spending for September.

* Friday, the Federal Reserve will report on consumer debt for September. The figures will probably show that consumer credit rose $6.3 billion in September after rising $10.8 billion in August.