Dave, Jay Keep at Their Pillow Fight

When “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno” won the Emmy for best variety program in 1995, its host sounded an unusually combative tone.

“I guess they’re going to have to change the ending of that movie,” Leno said as he accepted the award, referring to “The Late Shift,” a 1994 book turned HBO film chronicling “The Tonight Show” succession battle. The book in essence concluded that NBC’s decision to adopt Leno rather than David Letterman as Johnny Carson’s heir amounted to an enormous corporate blunder.

Since then, Leno has done his part to write a new epilogue to the story. Whatever the reason, and it’s doubtless a combination of many factors, the late-night race between Leno and Letterman has grown surprisingly lopsided this season. “Late Show With David Letterman” has trailed “Tonight” since 1995, but the margin has grown since February 1998, when the CBS show briefly clawed back into contention, buoyed by CBS’ prime-time ratings surge due to televising the Winter Olympics.

Though CBS executives intimated the race might be on again, Letterman’s glow flickered out along with the Olympic torch: “The Tonight Show” has posted commanding victories in all subsequent sweeps, beating “Late Show” during the most recent survey periods, in November and February, by an average of 2.5 million viewers each night.

The gap among viewers ages 18 to 49, the key demographic in terms of advertisers, widened to a record spread in February. More than 3.3 million people in that age bracket watched Leno on an average night, compared to 1.9 million for Letterman.

More strikingly, NBC’s “Late Night With Conan O’Brien” achieved its own coup, outperforming Letterman among the younger adults who have historically gravitated to Letterman--despite airing an hour later, when viewing levels drop roughly 50%. The latest skirmish in late night, in fact, will be fought on O’Brien’s turf, with CBS to introduce a show starring Craig Kilborn in that hour beginning March 30.

While CBS is heavily promoting Kilborn’s debut, he opens that race facing a handicap in terms of viewing patterns during the preceding hour. Letterman’s ratings are down sharply this season, ranking behind ABC’s combination of “Nightline” and “Politically Incorrect With Bill Maher.” “The Tonight Show” has also declined a bit this year, but for all the talk about the networks (and NBC in particular) losing audience in prime time, Leno’s ratings are equivalent to what Carson was doing when his run ended seven years ago.

The Networks Jostle for Bragging Rights

Despite this dominance, NBC complains that perception hasn’t caught up with reality. The network contends that those who cover the TV industry have been slow to address the facts, in part because critics generally prefer Letterman and prematurely crowned him the new late-night king.

“Most reporters wrote [that] Letterman is going to win, and most reporters aren’t anxious to write that they were wrong,” said NBC West Coast President Don Ohlmeyer.

Leno struck a more conciliatory pose, shrugging off whatever perceived slights he continues to endure, such as being omitted from too-hip Entertainment Weekly magazine’s list of the “50 funniest people alive.” (Letterman came in at No. 18.)

“When you’re a comedian, you go out and you play a room. . . . The one thing in television you can’t do is get the whole room,” he said, referring to his critics.

“It’s like your wife’s family. It’d be nice if they like you, but it’s not the end of the world.”

Although both shows remain enormous profit centers for their respective networks, and “Late Show” has no trouble booking A-level guests, sources say losing night after night has taken its toll on Letterman, whose commitment from CBS was recently extended through the 2001-02 season.

CBS officials point out that Letterman remains not only a financial success but, in their eyes, the true late-night king creatively.

“We do take a lot of satisfaction in knowing: In Dave, we have the best guy and the best show,” said Mitch Semel, CBS’ senior vice president of East Coast programming, who oversees late night. “Not to take anything away from Jay’s success, because it is earned, [but] we know we’ve got the gold standard.”

“Late Show” producers also say CBS’ older-skewing prime-time audience is not compatible with Letterman, while Leno benefits from stronger lead-ins thanks to NBC hits such as “ER” and “Law & Order,” which funnel viewers into “The Tonight Show.”

“All the research that we have shows there’s no dissatisfaction with Dave,” said “Late Show” executive producer Rob Burnett, who fielded questions for the show. “[Dave’s] been at this for 17 years, and what we really care about at this point is producing a show that’s entertaining for us and for others. We’re not at a stage where we’re obsessed with these numbers.”

While “Late Show” maintains the ratings disparity is thus beyond Letterman’s control, NBC officials say the lead-in has become less significant as time has worn on, citing the night of the Grammy Awards as a recent example. Leno still won, even though the musical event brought CBS a sizable prime-time audience of just those viewers Letterman normally lacks. NBC accuses CBS of concocting excuses to obscure the real issue--that America has voted, and the choice is Leno.

“It drives me nuts,” said Gary Considine, executive producer of “Tonight” for NBC Studios. “About 40% of our audience comes from NBC prime time, so 60% is coming from elsewhere. . . . People always seem to look for reasons why we’re winning, as opposed to accepting the fact that we’re doing a show that people seem to like.”

So why does NBC think “Tonight” is on top? According to executive producer Debbie Vickers, it’s because the show has gotten better as Leno has made it his own.

“At the beginning, Jay didn’t know how to fit into Johnny’s space and be respectful,” she said. “The first couple years were spent trying to make him be himself. Now, I think Jay is comfortable.”

CBS, meanwhile, is focusing on Kilborn, heavily promoting the former “The Daily Show” host during this month’s NCAA basketball games. The network hopes his comedy-oriented format will create a more compatible block that might actually help Letterman corral a younger audience as well.

It remains to be seen how much NBC’s diminished prime-time performance this season or CBS’ modest ratings strides ultimately will affect “The Tonight Show.” Yet Leno insists that whatever happens, he won’t point fingers at anyone but himself.

“It’s either working or it’s not. There’s no excuse,” he said. “If people want to watch a show, if they like what they see, they’ll find it. . . .

“The one thing you do see in Hollywood are these wonderful, noble failures. ‘Hey, your show was great; I don’t care if nobody watched it.’ Well, unfortunately, it is a business, and from a business point of view--the advertising people, the [network] people, the stockholders--they all seem pretty happy with it.”

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Late-Night Battleground

Here is a comparison of viewing levels during sweeps periods of the last year for NBC’s “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” CBS’ “Late Show With David Letterman” and ABC’s combination of “Nightline” and “Politically Incorrect With Bill Maher.” “Letterman” has slipped to third place.

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“The Tonight Show With Jay Leno” (NBC)

“Late Show With David Letterman” (CBS)

“Nightline”/”Politically Incorrect” (ABC)

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Source: Nielsen Media Research