Sales Turn Out Slack for Women’s Wear

NEW YORK — This Christmas season won’t be remembered as a time women insisted on replenishing their wardrobes with the latest, must-have fashions.

Sure, cashmere sweaters and casual wear moved off some retailers’ shelves. But as a whole, women’s clothing didn’t generate the kind of excitement that retailers had hoped would boost overall holiday sales--one reason retail figures turned out weaker than expected.

“If you polled the stores, several would say they were disappointed with women’s apparel,” said Allison Malkin, an apparel analyst at SBC Warburg Dillon Read. “I think you would find more losers than winners.”

The letdown came after early expectations that apparel would drive Christmas spending, given the strength of the economy. But analysts blamed the mixed results on fears of an economic downturn and the lack of significant fashion trends. The flood of stores vying for consumers’ dollars in women’s apparel also has squeezed margins, analysts said.

The International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracks malls nationwide, reported that apparel sales increased only 0.1% over last year for the week ending Dec. 21. Overall, clothing sales this season are up only 1.4%.

“It’s a restrained shopping environment, particularly for women’s apparel,” said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard’s Retail Trend Report in New Jersey. “The only stores that were busy were the ones selling inexpensive things. We found that if stores were able to show customers items below $50, their chances of having a reasonably good Christmas were better.”

Tammy Russo, 33, said she purchased fewer women’s clothes this Christmas, choosing instead to make gift baskets filled with soaps, candles and fragrances. In fact, Russo in the last year has curbed her clothing spending because nothing compelled her to update her wardrobe.

“In the past, I would have said, ‘I have to have this pair of boots or this coat,’ but this year there was nothing like that,” she said. “I think styles have gotten so simple that you can get away without buying a lot.”

Despite such lack of enthusiasm, the picture hasn’t been entirely gloomy. For instance, analysts expect Gap and its Old Navy subsidiary to report rosy results this quarter.

Women’s apparel sales at Bloomingdale’s also are likely to exceed expectations this holiday period, said Frank Doroff, general merchandise manager of ready-to-wear. Cashmere sweaters sold well, along with Polo and Guess jeans. “The status casual lines did well,” he said.

At J.C. Penney, Christmas shoppers reached for Angora and wool sweaters, silk jog sets, corduroy overalls and other moderately priced women’s sportswear, said spokesman Duncan Muir.

“It hasn’t been robust, but women’s apparel is doing better than other areas,” he said.

To move clothing off the racks, many stores marked down merchandise more than had been planned. That attracted shoppers, although the discounting is likely to cut into retailers’ profits.

There are “several retailers vying for the same dollars, so consumers will go to those stores with better offerings,” Malkin said. But with “so many competitors, only a handful can do well.”

Although retailers had hoped that women’s clothing would carry this Christmas season, the industry as a whole has not had a standout year.

For the first nine months of this year, women’s apparel unit sales totaled $5.8 billion nationally, up 2.6% from 1996, according to the NPD Group, a marketing information firm based in Port Washington, N.Y. By comparison, men’s clothing rose 5.2% during the same time frame.

Analysts believe consumers are refraining from spending freely on clothing because they are worried about the stock market, job security and personal debt.

There is also a sense that women weren’t especially thrilled with this year’s fashions.

“The designs aren’t exciting women,” said Alan Millstein, editor of a New York-based fashion industry newsletter. “The designers are putting out yesterday’s mashed potatoes.”

Bridge lines--a general description of clothing between expensive and moderate--have particularly been weak this year, as more women favor less expensive merchandise in the “better” category.

“It’s been an ongoing trend for the past year,” said Leslie McCall, an analyst with CIBC Oppenheimer. “Better is doing well because the quality has improved and there’s a very compelling price value.”

While Liz Claiborne and Jones Apparel Group have done well with their “better” clothes, several bridge lines, including Donna Karan’s DKNY, have struggled.

“Bridge is still too expensive for many people,” Barnard said. “What women seem to really want is something comfortable and practical.”

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Crawling Off the Shelves

Analysts said apparel sales have been lackluster this holiday season, particularly for women. Retailers had hoped women’s clothing would boost overall retail sales this Christmas. A look at changes in sales by merchandise category:

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Week ending Dec. 21 Season to date Apparel +0.1% +1.4% Cards/gifts/books --0.7 No change Home furnishings --2.8 --1.7 Jewelry +1.7 +4.8 Music/entertainment/software --0.4 +2.3 Shoes --1.0 +0.1 Average +0.6 +2.0

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Source: International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracked sales at more than 2,500 specialty stores in 49 malls across the country. The trade association does not include department stores in its surveys.