Rebels Have Tougher Task Ahead

LUBUMBASHI, Zaire — The military offensive of Zaire’s new de facto president, Laurent Kabila, is over, but the political war has just begun.

As the rebel leader prepared to present his new government to the world today, members of the country’s political opposition expressed concern that they would be excluded from key positions. Radical politicians say it is they who deserve much of the credit for the political demise of former President Mobutu Sese Seko, and they are eager to be rewarded for their efforts.

“We are the ones who succeeded in putting Mobutu in an ambulance, while Mr. Kabila succeeded in bringing him to the cemetery,” said Joseph Olenghankoy, leader of the Forces for Union and Solidarity. “In this sense it is a split victory.”

Officials of Kabila’s Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire maintain that the door has not been closed on opposition leaders and that Kabila has consulted with several of them about accepting significant posts in the new government. Valentin Mubake, spokesman for opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi and his Union for Democracy and Social Progress, the country’s largest opposition group, said the ideal compromise would be Kabila as president and Mubake’s boss as prime minister.

“If we put together those two groups, then we will represent a large majority of the Zairian people,” Mubake said.

Kabila’s leadership alone will not suffice, he added. Having been out of the country for decades until his return last year, the rebel leader is a foreigner to many of his countrymen, Mubake said.

The radical opposition claims many victories, among them having in recent years forced Mobutu to consider rewriting the constitution, pressured the international community to isolate Mobutu’s regime, advocated an arms embargo to limit the flow of weapons into Zaire and encouraged average Zairians to stand up for their rights.

There is also resentment in many quarters of Zairians who have recently returned home after years overseas with the intention of capturing positions in the new government. Many are young--the rebel force’s “foreign minister,” Bizima Karaha, is only 29--and inexperienced, fresh out of Western universities.

Kabila may find that he has to sacrifice some of his dedicated followers, who assisted his rise to power from both inside and outside the country, for the sake of expertise and national unity.

“The governance will be different from the military battle,” said Makutu Kahandja Biyoya, professor of international relations at the University of Lubumbashi. “He must be realistic and try to combine both local and foreign talent. Kabila’s success will depend on the way he will involve the population in this political battle, and also the way the population accepts his political choices.”

Although no date has been set for elections, the aim of the alliance reportedly is to hold them after a two-year transition period. Some opponents believe Kabila may call elections earlier, while spirits remain high, before the intoxication of his victory wears off and other groups get organized.

Others fear that the promise of a “transitional government” is merely a nice-sounding phrase and that whatever government is presented today will be the government for life. Those left out could go underground, they say, and there could once again be destabilization.

Inclusion of all political entities might be tough, but it is necessary, said one Western diplomat here, as is the open and honest conduct of affairs of state: “Transparency is going to be a new concept for them.”

The challenges for Kabila’s regime stretch far beyond the political arena. The country’s infrastructure is in ruins. Most hospitals have no beds, let alone medicine. Potholes pepper the few roads that were once paved with stone.

Reliable telephone communications are rare outside of the capital, Kinshasa. Schools are without desks, chairs and chalk, and the few students fortunate enough to be enrolled in colleges may be forced to drop out if the new government does not institute a system of state grants and scholarships.

On Monday, a small group of students from a local teachers college gathered outside the governor’s office demanding that their annual tuition fee be reduced from $160 to $40. “In the past, we looked for different ways of paying our fees,” said Jean Paul Kabamba-Mbuyi Bamblo, a leader of the rally. “We got involved in gambling, small jobs, even stealing things. But now, whenever you are caught, you are beaten. So we cannot use this solution anymore.”

Graduation from school, however, holds no guarantee of work. Jobs are hard to find, and wages are too low to allow families to make ends meet. This had led to corruption in every fiber of Zairian society as the only way to survive.

The newly renamed Democratic Republic of Congo may be unable to succeed without the help of the international community, and solicitation of foreign aid and investment has already begun. Several foreign companies, mostly Canadian, have signed mining contracts and are pursuing other kinds of deals with Kabila’s representatives.

Analysts warn that the new regime should be careful not to sell off the country. “The objective should be to establish a true partnership, as opposed to a state of dependency,” Biyoya said.

Creating functioning institutions, keeping ethnic clashes at bay and winning the trust of the country’s population of 45 million--many of whom have known only corruption, deception and dictatorship--are just a few of the other challenges facing the new leaders here.

“The easy part was getting to Kinshasa,” said another Western diplomat. “Now they’ve gotten there, [the hard part is] running the place.”