Clinton Hopes for Consensus in the Middle, Sees Conflict on the Fringes

Ask President Clinton if he believes that the budget deal augurs more cooperation or confrontation with Congress in the months ahead and he says with a laugh: both.

“Let me explain,” Clinton continued in an Oval Office interview with a small group of columnists late last week. “On the big issues, I’m optimistic. I think it’s more likely that we can work together on the budget, on foreign policy matters . . . on China. But I think along the way [the Republicans] will have a greater need--and our guys will have a greater need--for ideological fights to show the differences between them.”

That shrewd answer helps explain why Clinton has been able to survive waves that would have capsized most politicians long ago. Since the 1995 budget showdown, Clinton has controlled the contrasts between the parties--giving ground to neutralize issues that traditionally advantaged Republicans (welfare, crime, the deficit) while opening new wedges on his own terrain (guns, tobacco, defending education).

These disciplined maneuvers (and a roaring economy) have revived his political fortunes--despite the steady fusillade of accusations from an armada of investigations. But it’s led to grumbling among more liberal Democrats who fear that he is abandoning the party’s traditions and, not incidentally, denying them the conflicts they need to take back Congress.

That complaint isn’t totally groundless. But it misses the larger story. As the budget deal suggests, Clinton is disordering the ideological compasses of both sides: On the largest issues, he has steered the debate into a narrow space around the center that marginalizes most on the left and right alike. Purists in both parties view Clinton’s “vital center” as the La Brea tar pits of American politics--opaque, shapeless and paralyzing. But Clinton’s ability to confine debate within those boundaries is enabling him to compel consensus in a capital where most of the players would still rather argue than agree.

Consider the budget agreement Clinton and the GOP hammered out. It’s a difficult document to love, at once dissonant and cautious--a shotgun marriage of Democratic and Republican priorities that dodges tough choices on entitlements. But the budget’s weaknesses are also its strengths. With government divided, a plan that offered more ideological clarity--in either direction--probably couldn’t become law. This package may find broad support precisely because it accepts the reality that Americans don’t now support either a large increase or decrease in government’s role.

As Clinton observed, this outbreak of sensible compromise has produced an instant recoil on Capitol Hill. Conservatives are steaming toward confrontations with the administration over the so-called partial-birth abortion procedure, defunding the National Endowment for the Arts and even banning flag burning.

Before the budget becomes law, Clinton expects some of the same on taxes too. Clinton says that although he has reached a general agreement with the GOP over the structure of the tax plan, he’s expecting pitched partisan battles over the exact design of the capital gains and estate tax cuts. Clinton has told House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Archer (R-Texas) that if Republicans produce a bill he considers unfair, he’ll fight it. “They know there’s a point at which we have to get off,” Clinton said.

But it’s clear Clinton isn’t anticipating that kind of breakdown. As the majority, Clinton says, the GOP is entitled to “deference” in the construction of the tax plan; he won’t veto their product “just because it is not the bill that I would write.” He recognizes that the budget deal works because it gives each side some of what it wants and doesn’t force either to stomach anything totally unacceptable.

That sort of compromise may blur the distinctions between the parties, but it accentuates the fault lines within them. As it moves forward, the budget fight will pit the center of both parties against their most ideological elements, with the division greater among Democrats than Republicans. In fact, all of Clinton’s top legislative priorities during the next year may divide Congress in that same pattern.

This summer, Clinton faces a showdown with an eclectic left-right coalition aiming to overturn his imminent decision to extend China’s most-favored-nation trading status. Sometime after that, he will bang against a similar coalition over legislation to provide him expedited “fast-track” authority to negotiate trade deals, particularly the expansion of free trade into South America. (Although free-traders in both parties are urging Clinton to press the issue sooner, he appears to have decided to hold off until after Congress has finished chewing over China and the budget.)

The biggest test looms beyond: Clinton has privately indicated that he intends, after the budget is completed, to pursue long-term reforms to prepare Medicare and Social Security for the retirement of the baby boom. That’s extremely hazardous terrain, but Clinton has indicated that he believes Congress could approve a reform plan even before the 1998 elections.

If Clinton pursues that agenda, the tension inside the Democratic Party is likely to grow excruciating. There are lots of reasons Clinton might lose his nerve for such a conflict, not the least among them Vice President Al Gore’s anxiety about lugging all of these heresies into a Democratic presidential primary in 2000. But just a few weeks ago, many observers believed that these same concerns would prevent Clinton from reaching a budget deal with the GOP.

Mid-course corrections and conflicting messages are always possible with Clinton. But he seems increasingly confident that he is synthesizing a nuanced blend of government activism and reform that can sustain a national majority for his party. “It is good for the progressive party to be fiscally responsible, effective on crime, moving people from welfare to work,” Clinton insisted. The dissent from that vision on Clinton’s left has drawn the most attention. But on Friday a majority of Democrats on the House Budget Committee voted for the budget agreement. The process won’t be smooth, but the changes Clinton is imposing on his party aren’t likely to be reversed any time soon.

Ronald Brownstein’s column appears in this space every Monday.