Matadors’ Fate Rests in Hands of Committee

NORTHRIDGE — A year ago the road was hazardous, but the signposts were clear.

This season, Cal State Northridge finds itself driving in a thick fog, unsure if the road will lead to the NCAA Division I baseball tournament.

Ah, the price of independence.

The Matadors qualified for the regionals last year by beating favored Fresno State, San Diego State and Hawaii for the Western Athletic Conference Western Division title, then beating Brigham Young in a best-of-five series for the overall WAC championship, then. . . catch your breath. . . beating West Coast Conference champion Santa Clara in a best-of-three play-in.

Bounced from the WAC, Northridge learned this season the pros and cons of being an independent.

Is placing its postseason destiny in the hands of the NCAA tournament selection committee a drawback or blessing?

The Matadors find out Monday at noon when the 48-team tournament is announced on ESPN.

Twenty-four teams qualified automatically by winning conference championships, conference tournaments or play-ins. That leaves 24 at-large berths.

Fewer than 20 teams--including those that have gained automatic berths--have more victories than Northridge (42-20-1).

So, what’s the problem? The Matadors ought to be a cinch to make it. But it’s not that simple.

The committee uses several criteria to select at-large teams. One important factor is a computerized formula called the ratings percentage index. Precisely what makes up a team’s RPI is something of a guarded secret at the NCAA, and the ratings of individual teams are not divulged.

“I don’t think anybody knows exactly what it is,” Northridge Coach Mike Batesole said.

It is clear that the following boosts a team’s RPI: beating Division I opponents on the road; finishing the season strong; beating good teams that play tough schedules.

“If you go by what coaches say, every coach I’ve spoken to the last two weeks says we are in,” Batesole said. “But with the emphasis on RPI, so much is out of your control.”

In other words, RPI can spell RIP.

Northridge is 8-10-1 against teams that have been ranked at some point during the season: The Matadors split two against Oklahoma State, Clemson, Cal State Long Beach and Cal State Fullerton. They won one of four against USC, defeated and tied UCLA, swept two from Pepperdine and lost single games to Wichita State, Washington and Fresno State.

Other clues are equally fuzzy. Baseball America magazine has Northridge ranked No. 25. That’s good.

But the same magazine omitted the Matadors when it predicted the teams that would make the tournament. That’s bad.

Northridge’s reputation improved after it led the nation in victories and finished second in the Western Regional last season. That’s good.

Cal State Fullerton, a team vying for an at-large berth along with Northridge, boasts more tradition, having won the College World Series two years ago. And Fullerton assistant athletic director John Easterbrook is a member of the selection committee. That’s bad.

Northridge has an All-American in Adam Kennedy, who has put together some of the best hitting numbers in NCAA history. That’s good.

It’s unclear whether the committee takes into consideration the accomplishments of individual players. That’s bad.

Northridge won 20 of its last 27 games. That’s good.

Eight of the Matadors’ victories came against non-Division I teams. That’s bad.

“Being an independent turned out to pose more problems than we originally thought,” Batesole said.