Mobutu’s Delayed Return Fuels Hope for Transition

KINSHASA, Zaire — President Mobutu Sese Seko failed to return to this capital city as planned Friday amid growing signs that he will meet again next week with his guerrilla opponent, Laurent Kabila, and seek an orderly transition of power in Zaire.

Earlier in the week, Mobutu’s aides had insisted that the president would return to Kinshasa on Friday after holding talks with other French-speaking African leaders in Libreville, Gabon.

Mobutu’s movements are being closely watched by Zairians and foreign observers alike for signs of whether the Cold War-era strongman will relinquish power quietly in the coming days or hold on for a violent finish. His delayed return to Kinshasa was seen as reason to hope for a calm departure from power.

Diplomatic sources in Kinshasa said the latest attempt to avert a bloody end to the 32-year Mobutu era is based on a plan in which Mobutu would step down and hand power to a newly elected president of the Zairian Parliament.

The parliamentary president would then hand off power to rebel leader Kabila, who would become Zaire’s transitional president until the nation is ready to hold elections.

The two-step process would spare Mobutu the humiliation of having to cede power directly to Kabila, something he has sworn he will never do. And it would allow him to transfer power along relatively dignified constitutional lines, because the Zairian Constitution stipulates that when the president is unable to govern, the president of Parliament is first in line to succeed him.

The 67-year-old Mobutu is seriously ill with prostate cancer and could reasonably state that he is too sick to govern any longer. That way, he could avoid a public acknowledgment of Kabila’s military gains in the past few months.

The plan emerged during Thursday’s Francophone meeting in Libreville and was signed by all the participating leaders, including Mobutu. His pledge to relinquish power to a parliamentary president would be a significant concession if he does go through with it.

One hitch in the plan: The parliamentary presidency has been vacant since 1995 and would have to be filled before the negotiated power transfer could take place.

Mobutu opponents in Kinshasa said Friday that if the plan does go forward, they will be watching closely to see who is chosen for the parliamentary position lest Mobutu try to abuse the process by handing off authority to a puppet.

“We need somebody strong, with a lot of popular support,” said Moise Musangana, managing editor of Le Potentiel, a left-leaning daily newspaper in Kinshasa. “Otherwise, it will just be a continuation of the Mobutu era for this country.”

Roman Catholic Archbishop Laurent Monsengwo, a campaigner for democracy and the last president of Parliament until he was ousted two years ago, is considered the most likely candidate, newspapers here said. An even bigger hitch is opposition from Kabila, who does not accept Zaire’s Constitution.

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On Friday, South African Vice President Thabo Mbeki traveled to Kabila’s headquarters in the southeastern Zairian city of Lubumbashi to discuss the current proposal as part of a marathon effort to negotiate a nonviolent end to the Mobutu regime.

After the visit, however, the rebels’ “foreign minister” was quoted as saying the proposal is “absolute nonsense.”

“We insist, as we have always insisted, that Mr. Mobutu must resign and hand over power directly to President Kabila,” Bizima Karaha was quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency. “That is a choice he has. The other choice is for him to wait for our arrival in Kinshasa, and we chase him away.”