France or Bust

By GRAHAME L. JONES

May 4, 1997 12 AM PT

Share via
- Email
- Facebook
- X
- LinkedIn
- Threads
- Reddit
- WhatsApp

For the past few months, the focus here, naturally enough, has been on the U.S. national team’s efforts to qualify for the 1998 World Cup.

But now that Coach Steve Sampson’s squad has a break until its next qualifying game, against El Salvador in San Salvador on June 29, there is an opportunity to see how the rest of the world is faring on the road to France ’98.

Thirty-two nations--the largest field ever--will compete in the one-month tournament taking place in eight French cities June 10-July 12, 1998. So far, only two are known--France, the host nation, and Brazil, the defending champion, both of which qualify automatically.

But others are closing in fast. Tunisia, for example, is only one tie away from clinching its first World Cup place in 20 years. Similarly, Paraguay appears to be a sure thing to qualify from South America.

By the end of qualifying play in November, all 32 finalists will be known. On Dec. 4 in Marseille, they will be divided into eight groups of four teams each for first-round play the following summer.

This past week saw a full slate of qualifying games that brought the picture into somewhat clearer focus. What follows is a continent-by-continent look at the contenders and pretenders on the road to France ’98.

EUROPE

(15 places, including France)

There is Germany. There is Italy. And then there is the rest. That would be an easy way to explain Europe’s potential, but it would not necessarily be true.

The continent that will provide almost half of the final World Cup field--and logically should also provide the eventual winner--is much more complex than that.

France is a definite threat, and should at least reach the quarterfinals as the host nation. But who the other 14 finalists will be is far from decided.

Forty-nine countries have been divided into nine groups. Each group winner and the best second-place team will qualify for France. The remaining eight second-place teams will go into a playoff from which four winners also will qualify.

Here is how the nine groups stand at the moment:

* Group 1--Greece, Denmark and Croatia are in a three-way fight. Bosnia-Hezegovina and Slovenia are out of it.

* Group 2--It’s a scrap between Italy and England. Poland, Georgia and Moldova are done for.

* Group 3--Norway leads. Hungary and Switzerland are chasing. Azerbaijan and Finland are history.

* Group 4--Scotland has the edge. Sweden and Austria are in pursuit. Estonia, Belarus and Latvia are out of the running.

* Group 5--Israel leads for the moment, but Russia and Bulgaria will overtake it. Cyprus and Luxembourg are merely along for the ride.

* Group 6--It’s Spain and Yugoslavia neck and neck, with Slovakia trying to keep up. The Czech Republic has a lot of catching up to do. The Faroe Islands and Malta never will.

* Group 7--The Netherlands and Belgium are the top two. Stick a fork in Turkey, Wales and San Marino.

* Group 8--Romania is all but assured of qualifying. Macedonia, yes Macedonia, is in second place. Ireland has slipped badly. Lithuania, Iceland and Liechtenstein are finished.

* Group 9--Ukraine leads, but Germany will win the group. Ukraine and Portugal will fight it out for second place. Northern Ireland, Armenia and Albania have no chance.

Based on the teams most likely to qualify, look for such players as Alan Shearer, Roberto Baggio, Paulo Maldini, Gheorghe Hagi, Matthias Sammer, Denis Bergkamp, Raul Gonzales and Juergen Klinsmann to be starring in France next year.

SOUTH AMERICA

(Five places, including Brazil)

Traditionally, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have been the continent’s standard-bearers, but this time things are different.

South America has gained an extra seat at the table and Brazil does not need to qualify. In addition, Argentina and Uruguay have been beset by problems, throwing the race wide open.

The nine countries are playing in a single group, each meeting the other home and away. The top four go through to France.

Paraguay leads by a healthy margin and should qualify. Colombia is second, but three losses in a row, most recently to Peru last Wednesday, have shaken its confidence and caused Coach Hernan Dario Gomez to consider quitting.

Argentina moved into third place on Wednesday by defeating Ecuador. That will relieve some of the pressure on Coach Daniel Passarella, himself a 1978 World Cup winner, and on Argentine federation president Julio Grondona, who was called up before the country’s Congress to explain earlier poor performances.

The fourth place is up for grabs, with Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and Uruguay all tied on points and Chile only one point behind. Venezuela is the only country without a prayer and was hammered, 6-0, by Chile last Tuesday when the wonderfully nicknamed Ivan “Bam Bam” Zamorano netted five goals.

“We have improved dramatically,” Venezuela’s coach, Eduardo Borrero, said before the game. OK, if you say so.

Meanwhile, Brazil, which thumped Mexico, 4-0, in front of more than 51,000 at Miami on Wednesday, is still the continent’s power, especially now that 1994 star Romario has been linked with 1996 world player of the year Ronaldo.

AFRICA

(Five places)

As the continent whose soccer fortunes are rising faster than any others--Nigeria’s gold-medal victory in last summer’s Olympic Games is but one example--Africa continues to intrigue onlookers.

For the first time, there will be five African representatives in the World Cup and even then some worthy countries will be left out.

Liberia, for example, no longer has a chance of qualifying, which denies George Weah, the 1995 world player of the year, the opportunity to take part in the World Cup.

It was a recent 2-0 loss to Tunisia that ended Liberia’s hopes and left Tunisia needing only a point from its final two matches, against Egypt and Namibia, to qualify.

Also moving closer to qualification is Nigeria, whose hopes were boosted last week by the news that 20-year-old gold medalist Nwankwo Kanu, the $2-million forward from Inter Milan, had been cleared by doctors in Cleveland to play again after heart surgery last November to repair a congenital problem that had threatened to end his career.

Morocco probably will also qualify, but the other two races are too close to call. South Africa, the continental champion, is engaged in a furious battle with the Congo and Zambia, but its hopes improved with a 2-1 victory over Zaire. Midfielder Doctor Khumalo, of Major League Soccer’s Columbus Crew, scored one of the goals.

There is a two-way fight going on in the final group, where Cameroon is engaged in a close contest with Angola.

NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA, CARIBBEAN

(Three places)

There is a long way to go, but the consensus is that the three finalists to represent CONCACAF, to use the region’s unwieldy but necessary acronym, will be Mexico, the United States and Costa Rica.

The one country that could upset that scenario is El Salvador, which plays Costa Rica in a key game today in San Salvador. If El Salvador wins, it becomes more of a threat.

Canada and Jamaica have all but eliminated themselves from the running with a series of poor performances.

ASIA

(Three places plus a playoff for another)

The continent is still involved in first-round play, with no clear picture yet on which nations will emerge as the eventual qualifiers.

The key to Asia’s World Cup challenge will be for both South Korea and Japan to reach France, since they will co-host the next World Cup, in 2002, and need both the experience and the exposure.

South Korea has a long and fairly distinguished World Cup history and took part in the 1994 tournament in the United States, where its game against Germany at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas was one of the event’s highlights.

Japan, on the other hand, has never qualified for the World Cup, the closest it has come being last time, when it failed in literally the final minute of the two-year-long qualifying process.

Saudi Arabia, like South Korea, is a USA ’94 veteran with a strong team, while China is as desperate as Japan to finally appear on the World Cup stage.

OCEANIA

(A playoff for one place)

The initial round of qualifying is over and six nations have advanced to the final round, where play has yet to begin.

The six are Australia, Tahiti, the Solomon Islands, New Zealand, Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Look for Australia to be the eventual winner, which will earn the right to play the fourth-place finisher in Asia for the ticket to France.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

World Cup Qualifying

Thirty-two nations will take part in the 1998 World Cup in France next summer. More than 170 set out on the two-year qualifying journey. Here are those that have made it, almost made it, or are likely to make it:

France (host)

Brazil (defending champion)

ALMOST IN

Tunisia

Romania

Morocco

Paraguay

LIKELY TO BE IN

Mexico

United States

Costa Rica

South Korea