Home Sales, Prices Pick Up in County

After a six-year decline, the median price of a Ventura County home inched up last year, as a recovering economy and low interest rates fueled a surge in home buying.

“The stronger economy is pouring more money into people’s pockets so they can buy a new home,” said John Karevoll, an analyst with Acxiom/DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla-based real estate research firm. “We are seeing buying activity in all market categories, and that’s healthy.”

But Karevoll and other analysts warned that the real estate market, which hit its lowest point early last year, is just now beginning to recover. Moreover, there are some indications--such as a rising number of foreclosures--that the recovery will be slow.

“The market is certainly recovering,” Karevoll said. “But it is a step-by-step process.”

A total of 10,660 new and existing homes and condos were sold in the county in 1996, an 11.1% increase from the previous year, according to an Acxiom/DataQuick report released Friday. The figure, however, fell just short of 1994, when 10,783 homes were sold.

Buyers favored new homes, whose sales surged nearly 30%. Sales of condos and used homes rose by a more moderate 7.5%.

Meanwhile, the median price of a home rose to $192,000, up from $188,000 in 1995. But the slight rise in prices follows a steep decline that began in 1989, when the typical home in the county was worth $228,000.

That means a lot of homeowners are selling homes for much less than what they paid for them, Karevoll said.

And foreclosures rose countywide from 2,492 in 1995 to 3,112 last year.

“That is one reason that I always caution about celebrating the [rising] number of homes sold,” said Ali Akbari, an economics professor at Cal Lutheran University.

Despite good economic news and an expanding job market, the real estate market is lagging behind the overall recovery, Akbari said. And that’s not surprising, he added.

“I think people would like to take time and absorb the good news that we have seen lately and make sure that those changes are permanent, not temporary,” Akbari said. “If your neighbor has lost his job, you might be a little reluctant to commit to 30 years of fixed loans while you may not have a strong feeling of job security yourself.”

Akbari also said that more people, particularly young professionals with disposable income, may prefer investing in the stock market, which is performing better than the real estate market.

In December, 904 homes were sold in Ventura County, an 8% increase from December 1995. Sales rose in most cities with the exception of Ventura, where there was a slight decline.

John Anderson, of Anderson & Barker Real Estate Brokers in Ventura, said a shrinking inventory is largely responsible for the drop in sales there. But prices have been inching up in most portions of town, Anderson said.

“Inventory has been going down,” Anderson said. “In my opinion, as the market is shrinking, prices will begin to go up.”

In Thousand Oaks, results for December varied, with Newbury Park recording an increase in sales and prices, while other portions of town were down in prices and mixed in sales.

“There are pockets that are stabilizing in price,” said Chris McClintock, president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors. “And a few pockets where we are seeing increases in prices.”

Although the market is showing signs of a turnaround, the recovery will be hampered by the large number of foreclosures, McClintock said.

“That’s why I don’t foresee significant surges in prices, but good steady progress,” she said.

Sales have continued to rise in Camarillo, Oxnard, Simi Valley and Moorpark, where a large number of new homes are available.

Both Realtors and analysts expect that home sales will continue to increase rapidly this year, and that home prices will also rise, but at a lower rate.

“Without any question in my mind, this is the safest and best time for first-time buyers particularly to come into the market,” McClintock said. Prices are low and interest rates are low and should remain so, barring unforeseen circumstances, McClintock said. Moreover, good financing packages are available for first-time buyers, she added.

“Overall I am optimistic,” Akbari said. “The economy is doing good. I think it will take a little bit of time for people to realize that the good [economic] news is [here to] stay and that will mean good news in the real estate market by the end of the year.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Ventura County House Sales

*--*

CAMARILLO 93010 35 $197,000 58 $226,000 93012 52 $211,000 47 $211,000 FILLMORE 93015 6 $170,000 9 $145,000 MOORPARK 93021 44 $240,000 47 $251,000 OAK PARK 91301 18 $215,000 21 $251,000 OAK VIEW 93022 NA $ N/A 6 $ N/A OJAI 93023 22 $173,000 24 $224,000 OXNARD 93030 66 $179,000 79 $182,000 93033 35 $142,000 41 $136,000 93035 38 $184,000 35 $182,000 PORT HUENEME 93041 20 $112,000 29 $132,000 SANTA PAULA 93060 14 $127,000 23 $149,000 SIMI VALLEY 93063 79 $183,000 80 $176,000 93065 91 $193,000 107 $215,000 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 50 $205,000 64 $242,000 91360 52 $211,000 42 $185,000 91361 17 $316,000 13 $264,000 91362 70 $268,000 77 $263,000 VENTURA 93001 33 $169,000 32 $183,000 93003 48 $154,000 41 $161,000 93004 44 $201,000 29 $187,000 COUNTYWIDE *837 $192,000 904 $197,000 YEAR TOTALS 9,595 $188,000 10,660 $192,000

*--*

* The ZIP codes for some houses sold in Ventura County are unavailable.

Source: Acxiom/DataQuick