Gorbachev Takes Aim at Yeltsin, Urges Elections

MOSCOW — In a sign of how far Boris N. Yeltsin’s star has fallen, his old nemesis, Mikhail S. Gorbachev, rose from the Soviet political graveyard Wednesday to warn the West that Russia is backsliding on democratic freedom and economic reform.

Sounding like a presidential candidate, himself, Gorbachev blamed President Yeltsin for leading Russia “from coup to coup” into the bloodshed of Chechnya. In a speech to Western executives, the former Soviet leader said that only early elections can rescue Russia from crisis.

Gorbachev’s attack was one note in a growing chorus of condemnation of Yeltsin, whose popularity and credibility--as well as the national currency--have been driven to new lows by the 2-month-old war in Chechnya.

Today, Yeltsin will try to steady his staggering presidency when he delivers his annual address to Parliament, reassuring disillusioned Russians and a skeptical West that he is still the “main engine and guarantor” of reform, as Foreign Minister Andrei V. Kozyrev put it.

The president may also distance himself from the military bungling and brutality in Chechnya and call for long-delayed reform of the armed forces.

Kremlin aides told the Itar-Tass news agency that Yeltsin will go even further and admit that the military has violated human rights in Chechnya. That report could not be confirmed, however.

Russian and Chechen military commanders agreed Wednesday to a 48-hour truce to give the combatants time to exchange their dead and wounded.

It was the fourth official cease-fire since Dec. 11, when Yeltsin sent 40,000 troops to bring the secessionist Muslim republic back into the Russian fold. The previous three truces--the last announced just Monday--broke down within hours.

Nevertheless, even the faint hope of peace gives Yeltsin a desperately needed success to trumpet in today’s pivotal speech.

Much as President Clinton tried to reposition himself in his lengthy State of the Union address last month, Yeltsin is expected to use the hefty missive--the written text is said to run 110 pages, and his televised speech is expected to last at least 40 minutes--to try to revive faith in his leadership.

Predictably, the text has been bitterly fought over by the warring Kremlin “clans”--the hawks, doves and other political factions that are engaged in a battle for the president’s political soul, Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reported. The paper also predicted another major shake-up in Yeltsin’s constantly swirling entourage.

Three years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia remains in a smuta , the history-laden word Gorbachev used to describe this confusing new “time of troubles.”

Yet even though economic, political and diplomatic progress has been halting--some say it has halted--Yeltsin and his controversial Russian brand of capitalism have managed to hang on.

Inflation ran nearly 18% in January, and the inflation rate has risen every month since August, when a tight-money policy had beaten it down to a tolerable 4.6%.

The battered ruble hits a new low nearly every day. On Wednesday, it closed at a record 4,266 to the dollar, having lost 16% of its value already this year. Two million people are officially unemployed, a figure that doubled last year and is expected to double again in 1995.

However, booming oil and mineral exports helped Russia rack up a trade surplus estimated at $12 billion last year, keeping the economy afloat. Privatization has continued despite political opposition, and real consumption has risen sharply.

The Russian economy is growing despite the seemingly inhospitable business climate. But economists fear the progress could be undone by the war in Chechnya, which already has created 230,000 official refugees (others put the number at 400,000) and has cost perhaps a billion dollars.

Meanwhile, just when it seemed that Yeltsin’s popularity could slip no lower, it has. A poll of 1,500 Muscovites in January found that 41% wanted their president to resign and 34% wanted him to stay in office. Yeltsin’s position is now far worse than in November, 1993, after he used tanks against hard-liners holed up in Moscow’s Parliament building. Even then, only 26% wanted him to resign.

Relations with the West also have deteriorated, despite efforts on both sides to keep the post-Cold War partnership on track. The conflict in Chechnya has given the West more grounds to ignore Russian protests over the expansion of NATO, but Moscow remains as adamantly opposed as ever.

Added to the growing U.S. concern over civilian suffering in Chechnya is a nasty new quarrel about Russian plans to sell an $800-million nuclear reactor to Iran. The United States worries about the military potential; Russia sees the U.S. protests as another ploy to shut Russian competitors out of the lucrative markets.

The clearest and most present danger to Yeltsin today remains Yeltsin himself.

His frequent absences, failure to discipline bickering aides and erratic public behavior have led many citizens to conclude that the once-fiery 64-year-old Siberian is now frequently drunk, or losing his political grip, or both.

In his speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, Gorbachev claimed that such perestroika and glasnost gains as human rights, openness, free elections and an empowered legislature are being rolled back.

“Chechnya is the culmination . . . of the crisis gripping the whole of Russia,” Gorbachev said, adding: “My conclusion is that (Russia’s current leaders) simply don’t know what to do, and they may drag us into a very dangerous adventure.”

He prescribed presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible, “while they can still be held.”

But Gorbachev also faulted the West for allowing Russia to falter--or preferring to see a weak Russia continue to drift. U.S. aid to Russia has been painfully slow to arrive. But when Mexico’s financial system was in trouble, he said, “the United States suddenly found $50 billion that could not be found before.”