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Retailers Are Optimistic on Christmas Shopping : Economy: November sales up eighth straight month, signaling consumer confidence heading into crucial holiday season.

From Reuters

Retailers rang up stronger sales for an eighth straight month in November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, as the crucial Christmas shopping season got under way.

Despite bad weather near Thanksgiving, retail sales rose last month by 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $178.9 billion. That followed a revised 1.8% gain in October.

Commerce Secretary Ronald H. Brown called the retail sales gain “another signal of continued economic growth” fueled by low interest rates.

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Recent surveys show that consumers are growing more optimistic about the state of the economy, opening up their pocketbooks and giving a shot in the arm to the previously sluggish recovery.

Tracy Mullin, president of the National Retail Federation, said retail sales last month show that consumers were a moving force behind the economy.

“Coupled with other economic indicators, they show that the economy continues to show steady and sustainable growth,” Mullin said.

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Analysts said it was too early to make a judgment about the strength of the holiday sales season, and there was one cautionary signal.

The Johnson Redbook survey of retail sales indicates that business weakened slightly in the first two weeks of December, with sales down 1.6% from November levels.

Much of the economy’s vigor has been contained within U.S. borders since Europe and Japan are suffering from recessions that are sapping demand for U.S. exports.

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Driving home that point, the department reported that the U.S. current-account deficit, the broadest measure of trade, widened to $27.99 billion in the third quarter from $27.17 billion in the second quarter.

The current account includes trade in services and foreign investment, as well as goods, and is now at the widest gap since the fourth quarter of 1988, when it reached $33 billion.

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While sales have been weak overseas, U.S.-powered industries, such as home building, have had a resurgence in this late stage of the recovery.

In November, sales of building materials gained 1.1% after a 3.4% October gain. And furniture sales shot up 3.7%--the strongest monthly rise since a 4% jump in March, 1983, amid a building boom--after a 0.3% October rise.

With all the signs of abundant U.S. growth, some Democrats in Congress are warning against a preemptive strike from the Federal Reserve Board to choke off any possibility of inflation. With the positive growth figures, many economists expect the Fed to move by early 1994.

“We believe the current pressing need is to ensure economic growth, which by itself does not constitute a threat to price stability,” said Sen. Jim Sasser (D-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, and Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes (D-Md.) in a letter to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

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They were writing to express their concern about reports saying the Fed might move quickly to squelch any inflationary price rises with an interest rate hike.

While such a hike could head off inflation, it might also stamp out the growth in the economy now coming from the consumer spending rebound.

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