Write-In Could Split GOP Vote in Assembly Runoff

Under normal circumstances, her victory in August’s special primary in the heavily Republican 76th Assembly District would have left GOP candidate Tricia Hunter with little to be concerned about as Tuesday’s runoff approaches--except, perhaps, finding an apartment in Sacramento.

The consensus in political circles is that Hunter--whose pro-choice stance on abortion drew national attention to the race after last summer’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the volatile issue--will, indeed, win the seat in the runoff against Democrat Jeannine Correia and two write-in candidates.

However, the fact that there is any doubt about the outcome of the election in the conservative San Diego-Riverside County district reflects the peculiar nature of a race that has been anything but routine since its inception.

Although Hunter is widely viewed as a prohibitive favorite to win the seat vacated by the June death of Assemblyman Bill Bradley (R-Escondido), many Republicans are discomforted by the write-in candidacy of Dick Lyles, an anti-abortion candidate and GOP activist who finished a close second in the primary.

In particular, Republican leaders lament that Lyles’ write-in bid--and its potential for splintering the GOP vote--gives at least a glint of hope to Democrat Correia, whose chances of winning normally would be negligible. The other write-in candidate, Lakeside accountant Kirby Bowser, also is a Republican, but he is a political unknown expected to have little effect on the outcome.

“This is a very divisive thing for the party,” said San Diego County Republican Chairman Bettie Kujawa. “The 76th is so strongly Republican that I don’t think we need to seriously worry about keeping the seat. But what Lyles has done is create a little doubt where there should be none. I can’t help but feel that Dick’s just a sore loser.”

Like Kujawa, Hunter attributes Lyles’ write-in candidacy to electoral sour grapes.

“He claims to be a loyal Republican activist. But loyal Republicans don’t do what he’s doing,” said Hunter, a 37-year-old nurse from Bonita.

Lyles says that he decided to continue his race beyond his primary loss in part because Hunter is “less the nominee of the Republican Party than she is the favorite” of pro-choice activists, many of them Democrats.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt I got more Republican votes than she did,” said Lyles, a 42-year-old management consultant from Poway. “When you figure in the other Republicans in the primary, you see that Hunter actually received a rather small minority of the (GOP) vote.”

District Demographics

The district’s demographics, combined with several other factors--notably, the primary’s unusual format and the abortion issue’s skewing of typical political alliances--support that interpretation of Hunter’s narrow 197-vote victory over Lyles, 14,885 votes to 14,688.

Although the district has a 55% to 32% Republican registration edge, the primary vote was divided among eight Republicans and two Democrats. Moreover, with Hunter’s pro-choice stance attracting traditional Democratic support, she was able to draw crossover votes due to the unorthodox procedures governing special elections. All candidates of all parties appear on a single ballot.

Hunter, however, has little patience with such analyses: “All that matters is that I ran in the primary. I got the most votes. I won. Period. It’s time to move on.”

Emboldened by the Hunter-Lyles split, Correia optimistically argues that Democrats have reason to regard her campaign as more than just the “usual lost cause.” Admitting that Lyles’ write-in bid is a boon to her own candidacy, Correia added: “I guess this is one time I’m rooting for a Republican--up to a point.”

Political Fallout

During the primary, the 76th District contest drew extensive national news coverage as one of the first tests of the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s July ruling giving states new powers to regulate abortions. By contrast, the runoff has been rather somnolent.

However, Hunter broke the relative calm Thursday when she accused the National Rifle Assn. and the National Right to Life Committee of spending $163,000 between them for a series of last-minute “political hit pieces” that were scheduled to blanket the district on Lyles’ behalf this weekend.

The source of Hunter’s consternation was a purported schedule of 11 mailings, under the letterhead of the National Right to Life Committee. Spokesmen for the two organizations said they had no such last-minute mailings, and the right-to-life group said the schedule was a fraudulent use of its letterhead.

Lyles, who began his write-in campaign by declaring his readiness “to climb a political mountain,” professes to believe that “the summit is in sight” as the race enters its final days.

“It’s still going to be very tough and a write-in campaign is always sort of a wild card,” Lyles said. “But I think it’s clearly doable.”

As of Sept. 16, Lyles had outspent Hunter, $288,888 to $244,391, although most of his money was spent in the primary and Hunter also benefitted from a $100,000 independent expenditure by the California Nurses Assn.

Voters Told to Write In

Backed by a core of about 200 volunteers, Lyles’ strategists--patterning their campaign after the 1982 write-in victory of Rep. Ron Packard (R-Carlsbad)--have directed an extensive telephone and mail blitz aimed at reminding voters that Lyles is still in the race and telling them how to write in his name Tuesday.

While Hunter may have had trouble persuading some of her fellow Republicans of her solid GOP credentials, Democrat Correia, a 46-year-old instructor of the mentally retarded from Poway, gladly concedes the point.

“Tricia and I agree on two things--pro-choice and banning assault weapons,” said Correia.

“Otherwise, on social, economic and other issues, she’s a solid Republican,” Correia added. “One advantage I’d have is that I could go to Sacramento and work with the Democratic majority in a much more effective manner.”

Democratic Support Scarce

Correia has been unable to get Democratic leaders to share her perception that Tuesday’s election represents “probably the best chance we’re ever going to have in this district.” With the party unwilling to commit scarce financial resources to her campaign, Correia expects to spend only about $10,000.